LSG and MI are already out of competition for the playoffs with 7 matches remaining in the league stage of IPL 2026. RCB, SRH and GT have now qualified for the playoffs. Rajasthan Royals is best placed among the others teams followed by PBKS, KKR, DC and CSK are still in the mix but have light chances.
Nothing is for sure till now for any of the five remaining in the race as there are now 128 possible combinations of results.
Probabilities for Playoffs:
In terms of points, RCB are now sure to qualify and to at least complete tied for no. 1. Their worst case situation is a three-way tie for first place with SRH and GT.
On Monday, SRH’s win over CSK which means that both SRH and GT have qualified and for both the chances of at least being tied for the second spot are a healthy 75%.
Among the top four on points, Rajasthan Royals have a 43.8% chance of ending up and they could still end up in a three-way tie for second position with GT and SRH, but there is only a 6.3% probability of that.
Punjab Kings can at best finish sole fourth (28.1% probability) or tie for fourth spot with Kolkata Knight Riders (10.9%).
Kolkata Knight Riders probability of making the last four singly or combindly are now at 20.3% and if they do tie for the last slot it will be with PBKS.
Delhi Capitals probability of making the last four singly or combindly are now at 18.8%. Dehli Capitals best case is sole fourth (3.1%).
After loss of Monday, best case scenario of Chennai Super Kings are tied fourth with RR or DC or both and even that is only a 14.1% probability.
How we arrive at the chances: With 7 matches to go, there are 128 possible combinations of results. For every team, we looked at how many of these end up with them being among the top four either singly or tied. We also looked at in the top two either singly or jointly, how many combinations put each team. For instance, in all 128 possible combinations of match outcomes RCB complete at no.1 on points, in some of them as sole leaders and others as joint leaders.
